Election 2008 Next US President will be a Democrat or Republican?
By petebaja
@petebaja (516)
Mexico
January 23, 2008 2:09pm CST
With Pres. Bush's popularity rating so low and after 8 years of Republican Party rule in the White House, chances are a Democrat will win the general election this November. But wait! Will a Dem really be a shoe in to be the next President of the United States?
Let's analyze this for a moment. Historically, an incumbent President usually wins re-election. Bush is not eligible for another term and VP Cheney has no interest in the top spot. History also tells us that after an unpopular president serves 2 terms, the opposite party wins the White House. This may point to a landslide victory for the Dems in '08.
Now, on the Democratic side, the leading candidates are Senators Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards. Sen. Edwards hasn't won a primary, and despite his good looks and southern charm, he really is out of the race. That leaves us with a female senator from New York and an upstart african-american senator from Illinois.
Sen. Clinton is very popular with the liberals, but, is well-hated by the conservatives and evangelicals. If she wins the nomination, can she win the evangelical south and the conservative midwest? Or would the Dems be handing over the White House to the Republicans by default? If Sen. Obama gets the nod as the Dems' candidate, will the south (where some state capitols still fly the rebel flag) vote for him? Can any candidate win without the South?The U.S. is a very open, free society and very well advanced when it comes to culture and education. But is America ready for Clinton or Obama?
Do any of the Republican candidates have a shot or is Bush's unpopularity enough to give the White House to the Dems by default?
Here's another X Factor. A crazy friend of mine thinks that Al Gore might throw his hat in the ring late in the race. Because of his recent rise in popularity, will that throw a monkey wrench on the Democrat's nomination process?
3 people like this
9 responses
@Springlady (3986)
• United States
23 Jan 08
I pray that the next President will NOT be Hillary Clinton! That is a very scary possibility!
I personally really like Mike Huckabee. He is a Christian with great morals and values. I think he is best for the job.
God bless:)
2 people like this
@Springlady (3986)
• United States
24 Jan 08
I hope he doesn't quit! I hope it is a rumor too! He will make a wonderful President!
2 people like this
@anniepa (27955)
• United States
29 Jan 08
I sure don't think Huckabee would be good for the job! He's said the U.S. Constitution should be "reworked" to fit the Bible, which would obviously mean HIS interpretation of the Bible since there are so many. There are enough religious wars in the world without getting one started right here in the United States!
Annie
@petebaja (516)
• Mexico
24 Jan 08
I like Gov. Huckabee, too. He's very eloquent and doesn't seem to be too radical. My friends in Arkansas say that he did a good job as governor. I did hear earlier in the day, I don't know if it's a rumor or fact, that he was gonna quit the race....something about running out of money. Oh well, that's democracy working for you...he who has the gold wins!!
1 person likes this
@ErrollLeVant (4353)
• United States
23 Jan 08
Well thought out ideas. If Hillary wins the nomination, and I believe she will, it will be an interesting November. Nearly fifty percent of voters will never vote for her, seeing her as the epitome of evil.
I am not at all sure who will be the Rep. nominee. I tend to think it will be the candidate with the most money, Mitt Romney. I do not see much appeal for him among the base of the party, nor for McCain or Rudy. So the election will hinge on the turn out of voters. Will Republicans hold their nose and vote for a nominee they don't care for just to keep Hillary out?
2 people like this
@petebaja (516)
• Mexico
23 Jan 08
I think that the Republicans will do just that! They hate Hillary that much. If they think Ron Paul can beat Hillary, as crazy as his ideas are, they'll do it for the sake of keeping the Clintons out of the White House.
Remember, lots of elections are won or lost by default. Remember 1996? Pres. Clinton was very unpopular. But yet he won re-election. Why? Because the alternative, Sen. Bob Dole, was worse. People thought he was an old grumpy man (sorry Bob, I like you and respect you as a WWII veteran and hero, but that's what the public perception was at the time).
Sometimes elections are not a choice of the best possible candidate, but rather, a choice between the lesser of two evils. That's a sad commentary on the two-party system.....we need a third and fourth party.
1 person likes this
@petebaja (516)
• Mexico
2 Feb 08
Well, I might have exaggerated when I said Ron Paul had "crazy ideas". I actually agree with some of his ideas. He's one of the few politicians who actually means what he says and says what he means. He's not afraid to speak his mind. Actually, he says things that most of us believe in, but may not be politically correct to say on national TV.
I congratulate Ron Paul for being one of the few honest politicians running for President. That, however, is also his achilles heel. No honest politician can ever win. (honest politician - that's an oxymoron!)
1 person likes this
@flowerchilde (12529)
• United States
26 Jan 08
..yes I think if Al Gore ran it could very well make a big difference.. I think the country is ready for a woman president or an African-American.. but I'm hoping everyone votes on issues, as it's not the gender or race which will make a good president.. especially in these challenging times with China getting big on the scene yet still dictatorial, and the Russian bear raising an aggressive posture it seems.. and nuclear weapons in Pakistan and wanted by extremist groups..
- Just a note here, I think many don't realize it, but the confederate flag is a symbol of being a rebel.. I believe it very seldom, if ever, is used as a racist symbol.. I suppose by some, somewhere.. but mostly, like on the tv show - aw shucks, can't think of the name of it.. where the orange car had a rebel flag painted on its roof.. They made a movie of it not so long ago..
- I'm not sure if enough hatred of Bush has been stirred up (from the beginning) to actually assure the democrats of a win. But I guess we'll see.. I'm not a very optimistic person when it comes to this world and where we're all headed.. to me it's who will lead us downhill to disintegration the slowest.. One party seems intent upon bringing about social collapse.. and the other seems intent to bring about ever more mass production, which yes keeps folks with jobs, but how much stuff can we all have? I'm left with thinking recycling is easier than fixing societal dissolution.. for now anyway.. Don't mind my musings.. I'm very interested in this election, and the process..
:)
@petebaja (516)
• Mexico
27 Jan 08
I'm glad you're interested in this election process. I must say, in the 20 plus years that I've been a political junkie, this has been the best one yet. I agree with you on the point that Gore will make a difference in this election, although, I highly doubt he could get the nomination this late in the game. I also doubt he can garner enough support as a third party candidate to win in the general election.
I hear what you're saying about world events turning against us. And I also agree with your point that whoever we elect, we should do it based on the merits and not on their skin color or gender.
As far as the rebel flag, (by the way the show was called Dukes of Hazzard) I realize that it isn't meant to be a racial insult to anyone. Most southerners display it as a symbol of their regional pride. However, perception is everything in today's politically correct climate. And the common perception among african-americans is that the confederate flag is like a swastika to the Jews.
Reality bites!
1 person likes this
@hometyme (288)
• United States
25 Jan 08
Huckaby is the only one who can prevent eLectile dysfunction (the inability to get excited about ANY of candidates), I think. Al Gore? Who's paying him to spread that "news"? Seems that the sacrifices he proposes won't hurt him, if he's excepted.
What happend to the economy at the Clinton(S) last term? Were the Clintons responsible for the Internet boom? nah, nah, nah! It was timing!
Hillary has the best connections because of B. but...
...I'm a little tired of the SOS. I don't think I'm alone.
2 people like this
@Fishmomma (11377)
• United States
23 Jan 08
I think its hard to determine the outcome at this time. Al Gore has said more than once that he won't run and I don't think he is going to change his mind. The real question is this one now.
Who is going to run as an Independent that we aren't expecting? I think there are several people that could consider this position as a favorable way to run. I have heard the mayor of New York Michael Bloomberg's name several times lately, but he hasn't made any move to run yet.
I am a Democrat, but won't vote for either of the front runners. I'm willing to vote Independent, if the right person should run this year.
@petebaja (516)
• Mexico
27 Jan 08
If Bloomberg runs, I'd support him. Here's the problem with that idea....do you remember Perot in '92? He's a wealthy and successful business man, much like Bloomberg, who had great ideas and was very popular. But you see, third party candidates only siphon votes from one party, giving the victory to the opposing party by default.
Back in '92, Perot attracted a lot of Republican votes, enough to detract from Bush (Sr.) and, by default, giving the White House to an unknown governor from Arkansas.
1 person likes this
@kundalini444 (194)
• Italy
23 Jan 08
Two cases: either HE will be a democrat or SHE will be a democrat!
@petebaja (516)
• Mexico
24 Jan 08
LOL.....ha ha ha! With the stock market going crazy and all the talk about a recession, chances are a dem will win. But it's a long way to go before November. Lot of things can happen. Do you remember in 2004 when Gov. Howard Dean was the darling of the media? He was supposed to win the dem's nomination in '04, remember?
1 person likes this
@whiteheather39 (24403)
• United States
1 Feb 08
I really hope that the Democrats will win the election. Our country has really suffered at the hands of our present Repulican president and to ask for another 4 years of Republican high handedness is, IMO, crazy.
1 person likes this
@hometyme (288)
• United States
13 Feb 08
It seems that after 8 years we're tired of whoever is in the whitehouse, so we change parties. It'll probably happen again.
I don't think Republican or Democrat matters much. Capability does. I remember that George W. Bush was the head of a failed Savings and Loan.
1 person likes this
@petebaja (516)
• Mexico
2 Feb 08
Since 1989, we've had a Bush or Clinton in the White House. That's 20 years!!!! Are we a democracy or monarchy? Do you realize that we are being run by a handful of powerful people? Yet we're so gullible that we want to vote another Clinton into the White House.
Let's stop the madness, let's stop the bleeding. Vote for anyone else but a Bush or Clinton!!!!
1 person likes this
@bbsr13 (4196)
• India
3 Feb 08
Hello,petabaja!as history says after the Republican party the term of Democrats come. so naturally in the November 2008 Elections chances of the Democratic party candidate is at its peak and among the candidates chances of Hillary Clinton being elected as next President is very fair.thank you all the best to Hillary Clinton.
@huppsterdave5125 (279)
• United States
29 Jan 08
I think that the Presidential race in 2008 will be very close. Like others have mentioned, I do think Hilary will get the Democratic nomination. If she does beat out the other Dems., I believe those that are "on the fence" will be scared by her almost extreme literalism and jump to the Republicans. I believe that Obama would actuially be the best candidate for the Dems. Yes, his race may have some effect in some states, but overall I don't think it will hurt him too much since, as you mentioned, the Republican's are already sort of "in the hole." Now having said all this, I ought to tell you that I am a pretty strong Conservative. If a Democrat had to win the election, I would pick Sen. Obama.
