I BET you'll get this PUZZLE wrong !!

@benthose (474)
India
May 17, 2008 6:31am CST
This is actually simple math.. But most of us (including me) will get it wrong!! Even after reading the answer, I'm sure many wouldn't be ready to agree or accept(which also includes me.. But later I managed to understand the beauty of the puzzle)!! Its called The Monty Hall Problem, and is very famous.. If you saw the movie 21, then you might know the answer.. THE PUZZLE You enter a room with three doors.. The instructor tells you that there are goats behind two doors and an expensive car behind one(Remember that the instructor knows what's behind what).. He lets you open one of the doors and take away with you whatever you find in there.. Obviously you can only guess as each door has an equal chance of having the car.. Let's say you choose door 1.. Now the instructor opens door 3 to show you a goat in it.. He then tells you that if you would like to switch to door 2 you can(Remember that he is not trying to trick you nor is he biased towards anyone. Its just part of the procedure).. What will you do?? Will you stick to door 1 or switch to door 2 ?? Also give reasons.. ANSWER [Warning!! SPOILERS!!!] Don't read this until you are ready with your answer.. Most of you will: Stick to door 1 as you think that each only has a 50% chance and switching doesn't matter.. But the truth is that, switching increases your chances.. Explanation: Initially, you had a 1/3 chance of choosing the car, ie, a 2/3 chance of choosing a goat.. After he reveals you a goat, there is 2/3 chance that door 1 is a goat and 1/3 chance that it is a car.. That means that if you switch to door 2, then your chances of winning a car are 66.7% and not 50%.. If you don't switch, then your chances of winning are only 33.3%.. Still haven't got it?? Then go the Wikipedia page entitled "Monty Hall problem".. Just search it in google.. I know how hard it is to accept this solution!!
2 people like this
11 responses
• India
17 May 08
not that interesting puzzle you are going to probabilities but what if the person is trying to save the car what would be the option.....? well i think its confusing can i give a puzzle which would be a bit similar and well know to all
1 person likes this
@benthose (474)
• India
17 May 08
Yes it is confusing and that's why I've posted this under the "Thinker" category..
@MagicGuy (157)
• United States
21 May 08
Yes, it seems apparent that after the first choice, there will be a 50-50(%) chance on the next door choice. However, your choice was NOT revealed. I am a magician, and asking weather or not you want to switch is not just a formality, it is a psychological ploy, because the presenter DOES know where the prize is. Do we know his (presenter's) objective, does he want to contestant to win or not... I do understand this is the procedure of the game, but presenter's objective is being forgotten in the equation. If 'Monty' does want you to win, he will help by voice tone, and the same goes with if he does not want you to win. Trust is not an element, but must be considered.
1 person likes this
@Adelida2233 (1005)
• United States
17 May 08
Is it just one goat behind each door, or more than one? If there's a whole herd of them back there, just sell the goats and get your own car and avoid the 33.5% tax you are going to have to pay for winning it. :) And I wonder why my teachers hated me...
@benthose (474)
• India
18 May 08
Yeah.. I know why your teachers hated you!!
@TriciaW (2441)
• United States
17 May 08
Took me a while I admit it.. I got it now though. Gave me a bit of a puzzling thought there for a bit but yep you are right. Now that is one way to get the brain working this morning!
1 person likes this
@benthose (474)
• India
17 May 08
Good for you its a morning.. For me over here is India, its evening!!
@vaishalik (237)
• India
18 May 08
I know this puzzle. First I cannot understand, but at lase agree the answar. Really it is hard to accept the answer.
1 person likes this
@longbangod (1785)
• Philippines
18 May 08
I think if I were to decide, I won't change my answer. I still believe in first impulse, that would lead you to what you want. So I must admit I loose this one or I got this puzzle wrong.
1 person likes this
@kenzie45230 (3560)
• United States
20 May 08
I remembered reading about this before, so this time my answer doesn't count since I knew the answer. But like most folks, I selected wrong the first time and had to study the answer and reasons before it sunk in.
1 person likes this
@My2Cents (291)
• Canada
17 May 08
I love logic problems. I am going to have to re-read yours to examine further. Interesting though
1 person likes this
@drannhh (15219)
• United States
18 May 08
We had that in a textbook in some college class--here is another page that explains it: http://math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/cgi-bin/monty2?2+7934 Sneaky trick suggesting to switch to door 1, but I switched to door 3 instead and got the car.
1 person likes this
@vaishalik (237)
• India
18 May 08
I know this puzzle. This is really wonderful & hard to accept the answer. At first I also could not agree the answer.
@kun2349 (23381)
• Singapore
17 May 08
LOL ^_^ I've got it wrong too.. haha ^_^ I guess ple who stick to door 1 are those more cautious ple, scared of being cheated too.. haha Those more adventureous ones will go for a switch, as u explained.. All 3 doors has got equal 33% initially, but after the instructor shows the door with a goat, it means that door 2 and 3 has got 50 50% it's got a car now.. SO by sticking to door 1, it's means that u are giving the chance as the answer is being shown to u when he oopens the door.. lOL
@yona06 (585)
• Indonesia
18 May 08
I've read about this puzzle before. I think it all started in some paper that has a math solution column or something where you can ask math questions and get answers from a real mathematician. I think he was some math teacher in a very respected college. Then he gave that same solution you said above, and every other mathematician protested his answer. Can't remember the name of the guy, though. I'll look that up later.
1 person likes this