Obama: Real Vote

let me start by saying that i am for mccain all the way. but, that said, i think it is extremely silly and irresponsible for someone to vote either for or against someone based solely on their skin color. i would not vote for someone because they were white, or a woman, or whatever. i will vote for whomever i believe is the best choice for this country, no matter what color their skin may be or what gender.

I don't think so. I do think that a lot of the ones who say they are for an Obama presidency won't vote at all.

Hello Ganderlot, This is a great question! Will the Bradley Effect play out in this election? I dare say that no one will know for sure until November 5th. However, Scott Rasmussen's recently issued a poll that indicated that 85% of those polled will NOT lie to a pollster. Of course, that means that 15% WILL LIE to a pollster. If I had to hazard a wild guess, I'd say that there will be some effect. Although, I attribute it more to last minute efforts to avoid 'buyers remorse'. Despite the media marketing blitz Sen. Obama is untested, and that will weigh heavily in the 11th hour for many, I'm sure. How many? It's impossible to say with any certainty. If my theory is wrong, and a Bradley effect does rear its ugly head, then I dare say that I'd be terribly disappointed in my fellow Americans for allowing race to affect their opinion at all! I'd like to think that we are better than that! "Oct 7, 2008 A pollster calls and I am sooo ashamed that that person might think I am a racist if a say I am voting for McCain, that I lie and say Obama." www.pollster.com/blogs/rasmussen_akpa_106.php Remember back in January when Hillary was still in the running? http://www.bradblog.com/?p=5530 "An exit poll is just a survey. Like other surveys, it is subject to random sampling error and, as those who follow exit polls now understand, occasional problems with non-response bias. In New Hampshire (in 1992) and Arizona (in 1996)* primary election exit polls overstated support for Patrick Buchanan, probably because his more enthusiastic supporters were more willing to be interviewed" http://www.pollster.com/blogs/looking_for_new_hampshire_exit.php "To be sure, the question of race is bound to rear its head again, at least in some measure. A recent poll conducted by Associated Press and Yahoo News said that one-third of white Democrats harbor at least some negative views toward blacks. As a result, several million voters could turn away from Obama because of his race, the poll said, with as much as 6% to 7% of the electorate picking another option for president purely based on that issue." http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/obama-run-bradley-effect-polls/story.aspx?guid=%7B79FA00F7-52E8-4054-81F2-E6C14FE7D9F1%7D

At least one expert has said that the "Bradley Effect" is an urban myth and the reason for the bad call was that the original polling was poorly done. I don't know if that is true or not but I think that the number of voters who vote for Obama because he is black will wash against the number of voters who vote against him because he is black. The final count won't be much affected by race just as the final count for Kennedy wasn't much affected by religion. Like Kennedy, I believe Obama will win.

No, I don't think they will not vote for him because he is black. If they were planning to vote for him from the start and his being black did not bother them then, it won't bother them now. However, they could change their minds for other reasons. Let's hope they do.

No. What you're referring to is known as the Bradley Effect, and that 'effect' has been largely debunked. Think about it this way--why would a racist bother lying to a pollster and telling him/her that s/he's supporting Obama when s/he isn't, when s/he could just as easily say they think he's too inexperienced, too 'liberal', (insert Republican talking point here), etc.? With that in mind, it's no wonder that the research has shown that however many people won't vote for Obama because of race, those people aren't lying to pollsters about who they're supporting instead. They simply don't do that.