2012: Can Obama hold the Lake States and Florida?
@BalthasarTheRat (656)
United States
August 16, 2011 11:17am CST
In 2008, the major political climate change affecting the electoral votes was in the all-important state of Florida and the tasty morsels of the Midwest Great Lake border states. Specifically, Indiana and Ohio both went Democrat after leaning the other way for a couple elections. Will this hold for 2012?
Florida is complicated by the retiree votes. If the older voters get upset at one party for changes to Social Security, Medicare and other aid programs it usually spells disaster for that party. Has Obama done enough to save those votes by fighting against "entitlement" cuts or are they just going to see his compromises on cost cutting, budget and the medical reform bill as too upsetting?
In Ohio and Indiana the bigger issue is going to be jobs. Obama has been talking jobs alot lately and if employment dips below 8% before Nov 2012, would this lead to an automatic win in these swing states? Alternately, if the unemployment doesn't change or the gains are so small as to be worthless to the "common man", would this mean another flip back to Republican for these two states?
Is it even going to matter who the Republican candidate is? Or is it all going to be about how Obama is seen come November next year?
4 responses
@francesca5 (1344)
•
16 Aug 11
thats an interesting analysis, balthasar, though it feels wrong for me, a uk resident, to comment first, i'm going to anyway.
unfortunately i know too much about uk politics to get beyond my own experiences of how voters see different political parties, and in the uk its very tribal and class based, so its hard for me to see beyond that. but i think obama will win in florida, because i think the tea party have been too vocal in their opposition to raising the deficit, and therefore they will have scared the retired people of florida too much.
if i were obama i would be trying to blame the economic situation on bush, and the bankers, which i'm sure he is. and the interesting question, it seems to me, is who the voters blame. as problems with inflation and unemployment, and with the value of real wages falling, there will be a lot of unhappy people out there, and it depends who they see as being responsible. and the problem for the republicans is that the financial crash was a big event so just pushing the blame for economic problems onto obama won't be so easy.
thats my view, for what its worth!
@francesca5 (1344)
•
17 Aug 11
so the tea party are alientating people? thats a relief to know. as i find in the uk its possible to sense a mood, when it comes to politics. but its hard to "sense the mood" in another country, so i have to rely on newspapers.
@sswallace21 (1824)
• United States
17 Aug 11
Well, I will probably receive a brash of comments following this statement. However, I don't care. I pay absolutely no attention to politics. I have came to the conclusion the politicians will tell you what you want to hear. They get into office and do what they want. Normally it's nothing they promised during their campaign. In fact in some cases, it's not even close to what they promised. I found it a waste of my time to pay any attention to politic. Everyone says I need to vote, your vote counts. Why? It's not like they will change their minds from my vote. What they need to do is work together for the people, not for theirselves. After all it's the common public that is suffering not the people in office. Best Wishes!
@sswallace21 (1824)
• United States
18 Aug 11
Over paid is an under-statement. I wish someone would pay me to sit in a comfortable chair and argue with other people. I can only imagine how much fun that would be. Unfortunately, their arguements over small things is costing us. Best Wishes!
@valentinesdiner (1214)
• United States
16 Aug 11
I love how the media and many GOP'ers are underestimating the President. Holding the Lake States will be tough given the impact of the recession on the folks there. I am guessing that the vote on Ryan's Medicare plans will help torpedo any Republican in FLA.
It will be the most imprtant election in a generation... because if Obama wins he will be a lame duck and can move in the directions he wants to move. If the GOP wins and government is "run like a business" then wish us all luck in surviving the cutbacks.
