10 days out - so who do you think is going to win?
By evanslf
@evanslf (484)
October 27, 2012 7:10pm CST
Well folks we've only got 10 days to go til the US Presidential election. Seems that the polls indicate that Romney and Obama are virtually tied overall but that Obama has a small stubborn lead in the key states in the Electoral College (EC) where it counts (leading by 2 to 3 points or so in Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, also slight edge in New Hampshire and Iowa, toss up in Virginia and Colorado, slighly behind in Florida, more so in North Carolina which looks it is going to Romney now)
My take on the situation is that it seems that a combination of demographic change (more Latinos in Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, combined with more urban people living in Northern Virginia) and crucially Obama's decision to bail out the auto-industry in Ohio, may well push Obama 'over the top' in the EC, so to speak, even if he loses the plurality of the vote US-wide.
So I wonder what are your thoughts? I can see a small but distinct possibility where Obama wins the EC vote but Romney gets slightly more votes US-wide (ie a reversal of the situation that happened back in 2000, when Bush beat Gore in the EC, though Gore had a plurality of the vote US-wide). If that happens again, I can see all hell breaking loose!
What are your thoughts?
2 people like this
9 responses
@mariaperalta (19073)
• Mexico
28 Oct 12
I think no matter which one wins the us will be in the same boat. Politicians needs to work together and they dont. Same thing happens here in Mexico.
@Sir_bobby88 (8231)
• Singapore
28 Oct 12
Although i am not USA citizen but i think Barrack Obama should win with ease unless there are some unseen factors that would turn the plate.
@crossbones27 (49432)
• Mojave, California
28 Oct 12
It might tell you something from a poll they did from around the world that 20 of 21 countries wants Obama to win. The one country being Pakistan that wanted Romney to win. I can't speak for the Pakistani's, but I would imagine that's because we entered their country without their permission to get Bin Laden. Plus being at war in their region for so long. Most of these countries were not even close in the voting. Most people I have read on Mylot from other countries tend to agree with exception from a few people that were From Canada that I have seen. Not so much in the poll though.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-20008687
Not that that means anything but it just makes me wonder why half our own country hates the man so much. I see the the country divided in half, not so divided. Obviously it boils down to economic viewpoints and to me that is the main reason the country is divided in half. Apparently half the country forgot what is was like during the Bush years.
@matersfish (6306)
• United States
28 Oct 12
There are many reasons why foreign countries might prefer Obama over Romney, but the biggest would most likely be media in these countries.
I'll use a common poster in myLot's political section as an example. I won't say his/her name, but when mocking Romney, this poster was given a list of Romney's accomplishments. This poster seemed very shocked and admitted to not knowing about a single one of them.
And this poster is an American! Can you imagine how little foreigners actually know about either candidate? I mean real information, not highlights of speeches that have been severely edited.
For people who keep up with candidates, we may ask "how can this be?" But there's no mystery in it.
It's George Clooney vs. Scott Baio. It's Brad Pitt vs. William Fichtner.
It's the guy who's given airtime 50:1 over any other American figure, and the tone is consistently upbeat. I highly doubt foreign press would ask about Benghazi either. I doubt they'd ask about the inability to pass a budget, or how Obama's biggest criticism of Bush was that he ran up the deficit and the debt and didn't want it to be a burden on our grandchildren. I think they might ask what his favorite movie is or how enchanting it is to be President. But they wouldn't ask if he's satisfied in the performance of his Attorney General or if he's happy that he backed a lot of loans that failed.
Seriously. The hot-button "hate" aside, let's be honest about how Obama's portrayed by the vast majority of media. He's a do-no-wrong, honest, sincere, intelligent man who's trying to bring America into the European fold but continuously meets resistance via the wacko right.
Enough Americans buy that without ever bothering to question it. I'd only be shocked if fewer countries backed Obama.
@knoodleknight18 (917)
• United States
29 Oct 12
I find it really hard to care when I still don't have a descent job and I'd bet a good percentage of Americans are in the same boat. Sometimes I wish we'd just go completely Republican so that we could finish crashing the economy and ruining the nation and then rebuild from there. I was almost certain Bush would do this and given 1 more term in power the Republicans would have us emigrating to Mexico to work in the GM plants by now.
Anyways, I'm sure despite the outcome the popular vote will be close. People aren't satisfied with the economy and blame the party in power, that's why we seem to flip flop every 8 years, though I was and still am pretty sure that the crash of 08 was so bad that it doomed Obama's chances of re-election. All other factors aside, I think the electoral college itself causes the popular vote to be extremely close and increases the likelihood of a repeat of 2000. Thanks to the EC people aren't going to vote in states that aren't swing states. Many states outcomes are 70% one way or the other. It really skews things, the EC is outdated and needs to be done away with. It probably accounts for more votes not being properly counted than other single factor in this country.
@Bhebelen14 (5194)
• Philippines
29 Oct 12
I'm not from the USA but I believe that it could affect me, my husband's Dad and brother and their family is in Arkansas USA. So I might as well be affected by whatever decision that the nation makes. I hope whoever wins, they must look into the needs of the minority there. Thanks
@montevilla (550)
•
28 Oct 12
I'm not into politics, And I am not resident in the US. But I think Obama win again. That is just my own opinion.
Happy mylotting!
@matersfish (6306)
• United States
28 Oct 12
I personally don't see Obama losing. I'm not trying to wiggle through here and hedge my bets like Skip Bayless. I just don't believe that enough people realize how unqualified Obama is. He's a celebrity. He's likable. He's charismatic. And, most importantly, he's a stick-it-to-the-rich social justice advocate who's idolized by folks who want America to be more like France and Greece -- those in America who want to be have-alls and do-nothings at the same time.
I don't discriminate; they get to vote like everyone else, and I'm okay with that. I'd love for them to have to bring ID to the polls, but that's another discussion.
It's cool to like organic food, even though there are no health benefits over commercial food and even though organic cost a lot more, produces a lot less and actually uses a lot of harmful methods that are just non-synthetic. It's just cool
It's cool to drive an electric or a hybrid car, even though they're slow, they consistently break down, they cost a ton more, they're ugly (on purpose; making a statement) and plugging them in isn't green. It's just cool.
It's cool to like Obama, even though he can't get things even close to under control in four years, and he costs a lot more, he's infinitely more divisive than any other politician, and he's just as hands-off as Bush ever was. It's just cool.
In terms of a close election with a Romney win: Hold onto your hat. Media is already starting to prepare for that scenario, by playing six degrees of separation with voting machines owned by a company that's owned by a company that's owned by a company that one of Romney's son's is affiliate with. Some such nonsense. And the race card is in everyone's pocket, ready to be pulled at a moment's notice. Obama loses? White people hate black people!
Either Obama wins and the left gets to gloat, or Obama loses and we deal with a solid year of 24/7 coverage about stealing elections, racism in America, wanting to take away women's rights, etc. Either way, media has a lot to look forward to in the coming weeks.
And you better believe it will never be about Obama's policies. Ever. "Socialism" means "n1gger" and "inexperienced" means "Kenyan" and "overspending" means "boy" and blah blah.
@stary1 (6612)
• United States
28 Oct 12
evanslf
I am amazed the eletion is so close. I would think Obama would be easily defeated considering the state of the economy and now the Benghazi scandal etc...
I hope we have a pres Romney because we need a change and a fresh perspective. Romney is a business man..Obama never had to run a business and doesn't know how...
