What are the odds?
By grandpa_lash
@grandpa_lash (5225)
Australia
November 6, 2012 6:11pm CST
The voters rae at the polls in the US, and people around the world have been inundated with news programs on what the likely result will be. The consensus seems to be a slight edge to Obama, but what does that mean? No matter how hard they may try to be objective, political commentators and journalists will all have an ideology of their own, and this will make them tend to, quite unconsciously, give more weight to the positives for the candidate who best fits their own ideology and against the others. They will fear, as much as everybody in this polarised world, that the other side might win, and so the political polls strongly reflect these hopes and fears at the expense of objectivity.
I am a gambler, and yesterday I opened one of my betting sites to work out the day's bets when I saw a banner for betting on the US election. Now bookmakers are a breed apart; if they are not completely objective they go broke, and the odds on offer for your election so impressed me I had a very large bet on Obama to win.
The best price I saw for Obama anywhere in the lists of English and Australian bookmakers was $1.28 - a figure which ten hours later had dropped to $1.22; the odds on Romney started at $4.50 and went out as far as $5.75. I checked a couple of minutes ago, and the price has shortened even further with most bookmakers. In a two competitor contest, this is predicting almost a certainty, and while short priced favourites can and do get rolled from time to time, it is not common in 2 horse races, else bookmakers would indeed go broke.
There's no such thing as a certainty, but there are some contests that go pretty close to it. At these prices we could expect Obama to win 95 times out of 100. So here's hoping this is one of the 95 (see? I'm not objective lol).
Lash
1 response
@scorpiobabes (7225)
• United States
7 Nov 12
Well Lash, it looks like you won money since it appears that after a very shaky (and scary!) start, President Obama has been projected as the next President of the United States.
I am pleased because of one particular issue that has divided the country and that is Obamacare. As flawed as it is, I will now NOT be forced to lie in 2014 when it comes time to purchase health insurance (though I may now since I haven't really used it since 2008, the last year I had coverage).
Imagine if you had bet on Romney losing? Congrats on your winnings-what will you do with them?
@grandpa_lash (5225)
• Australia
7 Nov 12
Every cent counts for us, especially with a big move interstate coming up.
I don't know the details of Obamacare, but if it's even slightly like our Medicare, it will bring a lot of relief to the disadvantaged in the US.
Lash
@scorpiobabes (7225)
• United States
7 Nov 12
Well, that was odd-my entire comment ONLY contained letters, numbers, and standard punctuation AND IT WAS STILL DELETED!
Basically, I'll try to reconstruct my comment. First-I'm glad that you have some extra money to put towards your big move. Obamacare differs from our Medicare-Medicare is designed for those on Social Security and Social Security Disability; I think Obamacare is more about maintaining a healthy population. Currently, children are able to remain covered through their parents' health plans until age 26; children with preexisting conditions are currently covered though adults (like myself) have to wait until 2014; but the big problem involves who carries and pays for health insurance. It requires everyone to have health insurance; without it, you can be fined. Small businesses with fewer than 50 full time employees (I believe, please don't quote me on this) have to have insurance provided but there are loopholes. It's quite a big issue-I don't agree with all aspects of the program, but I am only concerned about no longer having to hide my preexisting condition (multiple sclerosis) when applying for new insurance.
