Selling shares at the right time is a combination of skill and luck

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Nearly all stock investment books focus on the analysis of stocks to buy. Most books do not give priority to the right time to sell, and yet this is the most important part of all. Recently I sold one of my top holding. This particular stock accounted for nearly a quarter of my portfolio. I was getting uncomfortable with the high dividend payout because the earning was not great. I went through the financial report, and did some calculation. I had no doubt that they would cut dividend sooner or later. I decided to sell since the fools already rushed in to push the share price to a new high. A couple of weeks later, the company issued a dividend guidance with a cut in dividend of nearly 15%. I was quite lucky. If the company had issued the dividend guidance earlier, I might not get to sell at a high price. I think the new dividend is not sustainable since the earning prospect is not getting better. I think the next year will see another cut of 15%. The share price will fall. The fools are lured by the high dividend. The share price of business trusts and reits always follow the dividend yield. I will wait for the share price to fall 20% before I consider buying again.