what are the chances?

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what are the chances of a guy/girl continuing a relationship with you when they say that they want to try being friends first after you two have gone on a few dates already? do they really mean it? i met this guy recently who in the past have been friends first with his ex's before it became something more. based on that, what are the chances of us continuing a relationship after we try friends for a while (we have yet to start)??