What's going on in the stock markets?
@redyellowblackdog (10629)
United States
March 2, 2007 8:42am CST
Just a few days ago the DJIA finished the day down over 4000 points. Stock markets around the world have also been hit hard. This morning we see this headline:
Top Wall St. brokers busted in $15M insider-trading ring
More about this headline can be read here:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6411029.stm
What's your opinion about all this?
2 people like this
4 responses
@lauriefnp (5109)
• United States
2 Mar 07
To be honest, I do not understand the stock market and economics very well. Hearing that there was a drastic plunge the other day and knowing that this is bad is probably the extent of my knowledge! I also know that insider-trading is illegal, thanks to the Martha Stuart scandal. I assume that the market will close at a loss again today because of this? I'm glad that my retirement money is in a straight interest accumulation IRA. I know that it could possibly do better if invested in the market, but it could also do very poorly.
2 people like this
@redyellowblackdog (10629)
• United States
2 Mar 07
Thanks, for responding so I can correct an error in my orginal post. THE DJIA WAS DOWN 400 NOT 4000 in a single day. OOPS, sorry about that!
The manner in which you have your IRA invested is probably a very good idea. Stock markets are notoriusly corrupt.
I have personal experience with this as I and 8 other persons once sued a NYSE listed company for stock fraud and won. Only a small percentage of fraud cases every go to trial, civil or criminal.
I have studied and invested in the stock market for almost 40 years, now.
Yes, I started in the stock market as a teen ager, for those of you looking at my age on my profile page.
Those years of experience have taught me that one has to be incredibly careful when buying/selling stocks. Many people just do not have the time it takes to understand and invest in stocks.
Bank CD's insured by the government often make more sense.
2 people like this
@coffeechat (1961)
• New Zealand
19 Mar 07
The technical correction you refer to is something I have noticed too, but I suspect it is influenced a lot more by factors other than a small insider trading scandal on the NYSE. I believe that this is one of the key signals for a southward trend in most bourses as well as real estate prices in the G7/G8 world.
There are many interdependencies and linkages between markets in my understanding. Going back to the OPEC oil embargo of 1973 we saw market valuations drop almost 40% over a period of 18 months. And the interest rates not being allowed to go up (governments regulated interest and exchage rates more in those days). Energy costs represented approximately 8% of global GDP.
Flitting past the changes in the eighties let me review the circumstances impact of George Sorros short selling the Thai baht in July 1997. Soros saw the inherent imbalances in the then fast growing Asian tigers and struck paydirt when he shorted the Thai Baht and took short positions on most Asian currencies.. sending all financial markets into a tailspin. This, followed by the year 2000 tech meltdown basically kept markets in place till about 4 years ago.
We have had a fairly good run since then.
1. Credit supply is at an all time high.
2. Real estate prices have been skyrocketing in most countries.
3. The US$ has taken a pounding and has recovered some ground - but the underlying US deficit has continued to balloon during the Bush administration.
4. Interest rates in the developed countries have been low as in LOW. (which correlates to low bond prices and high stock values and increasing real estate values).
5. China & India's increase in demand has kept things flowing all around.
6. China - in 2007 has relaxed overseas investment rules for Chinese companies. (I speculate that this is to prepare for "free floating the Yuan). This will see huge outflows of Chinese Domestic capital into international investments before the Yuan is allowed to float.
7. Most bourse capital is short term capital and will fly the bourses at very short notice.
The pressure on developed countries who are facing huge trade deficits with China and India to raise interest rates has been building. The ECB fired the first salvo in 2007 and the ripple domino effect will be felt in increasing waves.
As interest rates rise ( I expect that to happen through out 2007 and into 2008) stock market valuation will go down at a rate faster than the rate of interest rate increase.
The US markets will start to go into holding pattern around the time of the New Hampshire primaries and will not settle down till after the next presidency becomes clear. I have a feeling that the Yuan will go into free float around this time.
I could keep going - but I am afraid I am getting a bit wooly. Will continue tomorrow.
Cheers!
1 person likes this
@redyellowblackdog (10629)
• United States
19 Mar 07
Please, do continue tomorrow. I enjoyed it very much.
As to floating the Yuan, I thought the USA had been trying to get China to do this for a long time and China would not do it.
Has there been an anouncement concerning China's plans to float the Yuan? Or, are you making a very intelligent projection of their likely intent? I mean, are you really just speculating?
As to an interest rate rise in 2007 and 2008, would you like to see a projection from my software for that time period? I could create and post the charts here at mylot. What US interest rates would interest you?
2 people like this
@redyellowblackdog (10629)
• United States
20 Mar 07
"But I do know that China is sitting on the largest hoard of foreign currencies, ever accumulated in known history. Last year they surpassed Japan at its highest level of foreign currency holdings - would you believe it - they hold US$ ONE TRILLION."
Yes, I have tried to explain to my friends that China will someday own the USA and they look at me like I am crazy.
I mean literally own. The Chinese have every right to take their US DOLLARS and buy US companies, real estate, or whatever. If we do not honor our pledge to exchange their cash for what they want to purchase at a going fair market price the US DOLLAR becomes worthless.
We have already refused to allow them to buy a major share of a USA oil company, UNOCAL on the grounds of national security. If I were the Chinese, I would not put up with that for long and still buy USA debt. Imagine, having someone's IOU and they don't want to let you buy what you want with it!
I once tried to explain to a friend that we are losing a war with China right in our home town when we shop at Wal-Mart. I don't think he believed me, but I'm not sure.
This all makes one realize why China might be building up their military. Do you suppose they are anticipating the USA reneging on all the debt the Chinese hold? This makes sense to me.
One thing I see I can learn from your analysis is concerning currencies. I know next to nothing about them. You seem to know quite a bit. Maybe I can find some data about currencies and study it.
I did manage to find data for the effective federal funds rate. In a few days I'll have something finished concerning federal funds. Right now the data is not in a form my program will read. So, it will take a little longer than just running the program. But, now that I've seen the nimbers, I want to run it. It looks interesting.
1 person likes this
@coffeechat (1961)
• New Zealand
20 Mar 07
Red Thanks for the kind comments. No - there is no new information about free float of the Yuan. The policy remains unchanged i.e. 0.3% and 3.0% trading band against the US dollar and other currencies respectively.
But I do know that China is sitting on the largest hoard of foreign currencies, ever accumulated in known history. Last year they surpassed Japan at its highest level of foreign currency holdings - would you believe it - they hold US$ ONE TRILLION.
Quietly they have been accumulating overseas investments over the last couple of years. You may have noticed that IBM's personal computer business has been sold to Leonovo of China - and in about two years Thinkpads will all be called Leonovos. They bought and shipped the UK sports car company MG to China and have recently begun production.
For decades - CITIC has been channeling China's overseas investments. Recently they created a new megaInvestment agency with a fairly challenging mission. The closest model perhaps would be Singapore's Temasek Holdings.
Frankly I do not see the Yuan free float until the strategic overseas investments have been made, and China leverages its forex holdings into great future wealth.
Consensus is that when Yuan goes into free-float it will rise against all trading partner currencies rapidly. It will remind you of Japan in the eighties.
Over the next couple of years, as the EU struggles with integration of Turkey and East Europeans we will probably see the US$ hold its ground against the EU but the EU will fall against the rest of the world.
The Indian rupee will continue to rise and will pick up the lack of the Yuan's flexibility, this will make indian exports dearer in the short run, but will improve India's purchases of global products and help build its infrastructure. Unless something dramatic happens, India will demonstrated almost two digit growth rates over the next five years.
I guess I am rambling again - having begun my response with one outline and my writing going all over the place.
Any which way Q3 2007 to Q2 2008 should be a very interesting period for stock markets.
Yes I would be keen to see your projection on the Fed Funds Rate because every other rate benchmarks to that in one way or the other.
1 person likes this
@graham31 (487)
•
3 Mar 07
All to do with China is it not.Things were getting out of control,their stock market had went up by 50% since November so somthing had to give.Their had to be a correction some were along the liner.
The only prob is that all the stock markets are linked in a way that if one dramatically changes it affects the rest.
I have some shares in 3companies and have lost a bit of money not a great amount but still a lose,so i'm hopeing with abit of good fortune i'll atleast break even eventually.
1 person likes this
@redyellowblackdog (10629)
• United States
3 Mar 07
It is an interdependent world these days. Let one major stock market in the world get hit and the others are affected.
I do remember a time for awhile when the Japanese market and ours went in opposite directions. This was back when we competed more and were less linked.
Truely, if the Chinese markets and ours are synchronized, perhaps the world is becoming one big capitalist country slowly over time, even if it technically is not one big country.
As to breaking even, if they are good companies makeing money, you'll probably be all right. However, no one knows for sure.
2 people like this
@tmikuckis (63)
• United States
5 Jun 07
well the stock market is ding real good now. S&P 500 keeps hitting all time highs. (check out my investing blog www.toddstocks.blogspot.com)
1 person likes this
@redyellowblackdog (10629)
• United States
6 Jun 07
When I try to check out your blog I get an error message. Let me know when it is UP and I will check it out. Thanks.
1 person likes this