Does Iran WANT to be attacked?
By boliviab
@boliviab (27)
Bolivia
March 27, 2007 10:25am CST
With tensions already high between the west and Iran , rumours of the US planning attacks already in early April you would think Iran would try to use some diplomacy to try to cool the situation off. Sure , they considered the US and many westerns countries as enemies but a war would be destry the iran economy not to mention the cost on innocent life which would surely be the highest price. So what do they do - they capture 15 British marines and do their best to annoy the British goverment by not allowing any access to them and refuse to negoiate. I dont care if they where or where not in Iranian waters , there should be more co-operation from Tehran and it the issue should be discussed with diplomacy.
Today Tony Blair has made a very strong hint that he is prepared to take action if nothing is resolved soon and Im sure Bush would be willing help a hand.
It almost seems that Iran want a conflict. Why though? Do they already have nuclear weapons - I doubt it. Maybe they think a another war in the area will further unite the Muslim nations and have major negative consequences on the US economy. No doubt it will but it will also make the world ecnomy suffer, thousands of Iranians will die and the country will be knocked back decades in development. Yes the wars in Afganistan and Iraq are still being battled out by guerilla tactics that the allies cant stop but its very clear that the US and UK have very powerful weapons and could level most of modern Iran with bombs from a distance - it would devistate them. I doubt they will be drawn into a another land invasion - this time is will be air strikes and long range missiles only and Iran could not compete with this.
I really hope this is ended diplomatically - there are already far to many wars and this one would top them all.
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2 people like this
2 responses
@SageMother (2277)
• United States
27 Mar 07
One of the scenarios for WWIII is based on this type of conflict in the Middle East.
I think Iran is trying to position itself as THE power in the region in anticipation of troop withdrawals and the leadership vacuum that has developed in the region. To do this, they HAVE to appear equal to the UK and the USA in their ability to enforce their will on the region, without backing down. I don't think they are trying to provoke an actual war but they aren't going to back down easily wither. It would ruin their chances at running everything in the area.
I DO believe that they realize how thinly stretch the USA is and are taking advantage of out being bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan though. They are aware that a nuclear conflict would be devastating. IF they wait for the right moment to come, they will get a great deal of mileage in bringing up the fact that the USA is actually the biggest terrorist the world has seen to date and cite the dropping of the nuclear bombs on the civilian populations of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Iran knows EXACTLY what it is doing.
1 person likes this
@redyellowblackdog (10629)
• United States
27 Mar 07
SageMother,
You are exactly right. In my post I should have had also that they want to be the most powerful and respected nation in their part of the world. Tweaking the nose of the UK and the USA is one way for them to gain respect in the middle east. Thank-you for completing my incomplete thought.
BTW, Saddam played this exact same game and lost. Guess the Iranians think they are a lot smarter than Saddam.
@redyellowblackdog (10629)
• United States
27 Mar 07
Controling the middle east to the extent that oil can still flow at market prices and the middle eastern countries can still earn their oil revenue is integral to the USA's national security as well as the security of the middle east.
Contrary to opinion, the USA has not stolen one drop of middle eastern oil. But we absolutely need to still be able to buy it at whatever price the markets set.
Without that oil trade, the middle east reverts to warring tribes of nomads with millions of deaths from starvation.
Without that oil trade, the USA becomes a land of subsistance farmers with millions of deaths until we stablilize.
I don't think anyone wants these things.
Like it or not, if we want to continue to exist as a modern country, if modern middle eastern countries are to continue to exist, the oil from there must continue to reach market. This is why we attempt to control the area.
Not a matter of national security? The oil market is a matter of international security.
@boliviab (27)
• Bolivia
27 Mar 07
Im sure it does know what it is doing but it is still a very dangerous game. Its certainly not uncommon for leaders under pressue to play such games though and they often welcome war as it distracts from their failings inside their country.
Im just hoping this comes to a peaceful solution - I dont mine the tension between the countries but it seems to be getting very close to the edge at the moment. I also dont like the fact there are more and more 'reasons' for war being portrayed in the media and protecting national security is being mentioned quite alot, a phrase that seems to be used to try to justify an invasion - when its not about protecting national security it about controling the area.
1 person likes this
@redyellowblackdog (10629)
• United States
27 Mar 07
The Iranian leaders are playing what for them is a very lucrative "game".
First off, ever notice what happens to crude oil prices when the sabres get rattled convincingly? What is the main export of Iran? There is big money in it for Iran to cause trouble just short of actual war.
Second thing, is that the Iranian population is getting really fed up their leaders. It is to these leaders advantage to direct the populace's ire toward an external threat.
Thirdly, the western powers are reluctant to resort to violence and they do pay attention to world opinion. Iranian leaders know this and figure it lowers the risk of what they are doing.
So, now you have your answer. The Iranian leaders are playing their risky "game" because it makes them a ton of money, helps them to stay in power, and the way they see it the risks are actually not that high as the infidels are bunch of wusses who worry what others think.
Does this help?
@boliviab (27)
• Bolivia
27 Mar 07
Some good points but your missing out the fact that we are dealing with religous fanatics who would love to have an all out holy war against the infidels and unite the all Islamic countries. Yes they make money from this game they play but if they think the infidels are a bunch of wusses who worry about what others think then they havent studied Litte Bush very well - he doesnt care what anyone thinks, not his own people, not his oewn goverment,possible only waht Daddy Bush thinks.Plenty of Bushes arms dealer friends would make plentry of money out of another war also and what does he care - he not going to president soon.
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