What WAR with IRAN will do for us..

Hello soadnot! I would tend to agree with most of what you have said except…, “there is absolutely ‘no chance’ that we are going to war with iran in anyway that will benefit the american people without giving up our civil liberties.” I don’t think that there is ‘absolutely no chance’ but I do think that it is improbable. I have written on this issue some 7 months ago and most of that still holds true. If you like you can read it here: http://www.mylot.com/w/discussions/901444.aspx I have also read other comments here and I would agree that America has sufficient military muscle to even attack China, let alone Iran. But, in military strategy, power and capability to attack isn’t the only thing considered for going to war. There are many more other parameters which affect the decision. You have underlined some of those factors and some I have covered in my discussion that I referenced above. One such factor and parameter is aftermath of war. However, I won’t agree with some naïve comments made here, that it will be like going in and coming out quickly, not only on American side but also from Iranian side. America sure can start the war but once started, it will not end on American terms and time of choosing. Iran will surely retaliate in it’s own terms and the war will convolute such that one event will cause another, for quite a while. America has a history of quick successes but strategic losses in long term in last 50-60 years. America celebrated the victory in over throwing democratically elected government in Iran in early 1950s and placing a Monarch there but what followed is nothing less than a strategic loss for America in Iran. Same happened in Vietnam, an apparent quick victory turned out to be a strategic loss claiming at least 60,000 of American servicemen lives. Same happened in it’s support in Afghanistan against Russia, surely Russia suffered a devastating defeat but all those who were provided with weapons, intelligence and support turned against America and America is suffering losses till date. History showed another moral, ethical and military defeat of America in Iran-Iraq war, where America put in stakes and Iraq did dominate the war for first two years but rest of the war was fought on Iraqi soil and despite American wishes and support, Saddam couldn’t win. America has also employed terroristic, immoral and unethical engagement in central and Latin America but today, it has turned to the left, again a strategic defeat. China is slowly creeping into the this Area despite the fact that it had earlier been declared a no go zone by America for other world powers. In conclusion, only military might is, in no way, the only defining point of success and victory in any conflict. Had it been so, USSR would never fall which was more strong, militarily, than America when it collapsed. I do consider it a very important factor though. People, sometimes, overestimate American abilities and underestimate Iranian capabilities. General Americans have no idea, what so ever, who they are dealing with. Iran is not Iraq…unlike Iraq, People in Iran are much more united and are with Government, ready to sacrifice their lives on one single order of their supreme leader whom many Iranians love more than their lives. Even non-Shias (Shias are majority Islamic denomination there) in Iran are very nationalistic, be it the other Islamic denomination, the Sunnis, or minorities like Jews, Christians and Zoroastrians. Iranian supreme leader very rightly said a few years ago (probably 2002, I don’t remember exactly and these are not exact words, I am recalling from my memory) that “there is no threat, as of now, of any American attack until they break our unity which they will try to intrude into first. So the real threat, in coming years would be of maintaining unity not of any American ground forces.” He admitted the possibility of Air strikes but vowed to retaliate in any such event. And, when HE says something, people should be paying attention, really! And this, being known to American establishment, gives me reasons to believe that the strikes won’t be limited to just nuclear sites, it will be all out against almost all military installations as well as dual use facilities of Iran so as to reduce the impact of retaliation. Thus, the concept of surgical strike that too only on nuclear sites, is not at all in American interests and it won’t be conducive for the safety of it’s armed forces deployed in the region. On military and defense side, Iran has moved much ahead than what it was a decade ago, despite all the ever growing sanctions against Iran. First of all, a successful leadership policy of least American-Iranian interaction, which was actually initiated by America but Iranian leadership used it for their benefit, have made the intelligence information about Iran scarce. There is a considerable lack of intelligence information over Iranian facilities. For this very reason both Israeli and American generals, in military top brass, have voiced their opinions that even the surgical strikes won’t achieve the purpose. Israeli general spoke in the last quarter of last year saying that strike against nuclear installations against Iran won’t be effective and successful owing to lack of crucial intelligence. On the other side, The Sunday Times in UK reported on the basis of intelligence and defence sources, I quote, “SOME of America’s most senior military commanders are prepared to resign if the White House orders a military strike against Iran” http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/iraq/article1434540.ece Moeover, Iranian facilities are well protected and well underground such that usual conventional weapons won’t work, So America will have to use some weapons, illegal under Geneva Convention, making it’s strikes illegitimate, though the action itself is/will be illegitimate. Iranians have already installed Tor-M1 missiles on it’s nuclear sites, though not enough against American military might but still they serve as a deterrence against Air-Strikes to some extent. They have also acquired torpedo missiles (Missile would be an illusive term here since these Torpedo don’t have effective guidance mechanism ); which, if fired with skill, No-Ship could escape them owing to their speed. They have also acquired Cruise and Anti-Ship missiles. The Iranian retaliatory plans that have come to my information are very intelligent and believe me that, if ever, America is going to attack Iran, America would suffer it’s greatest military loss after Vietnam in recent past. I am also seeing peoples’ uprising in the region in many Governments allied with America, like in Egypt, Jordan and especially in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Operation Iraqi Freedom, which is already in trouble will be doomed as will Afghanistan. In conclusion, American ‘surgical strikes’ is not a viable option, in my humble opinion, even if America initially goes for ‘surgical strikes’ it would not remain as such and, inevitably, there will be succession of hostilities on both sides. In the long run, it will be a great strategic defeat for American interest, not only in the region but through out the globe. Have my WORDS on it!!! I have been predicting on security issues of the region ever since the rise of Taliban in Afghanistan, some 12 years ago, and fortunately none of my predictions till date have failed be it downfall of Taliban, aftermath of 9/11, Afghanistan war, Iraq war, plan to divide Iraq, Israel-Hizbullah war or CIA manipulations. However I am not a prophet, I only use certain principles and my knowledge of the region. Any body can do it, any Tom, Dickk and Harry can do it who have modest knowledge of the region, it’s populace and security issues. Principles that I use aren’t secret either, they are universal. I only know that any unfair means, any manipulation, any injustice, and any illegitimate treatment can never give fruitful and peaceful results…Violence breeds violence…any unnatural alliance is bound to fall…Human are great, basically, ethically and morally so any immoral, unethical and base action won’t be accepted in the long term. American foreign policy has been immoral, unethical, illegitimate, unjust and unfair for which America is paying now and she will surely pay a heavy price, in case Iran is attacked…You can have my words on it! Iran and Iranians have seen the worst times under American-Shah coalition and in Iran-Iraq war. They have lost over two million of their citizens. They have born the ever growing sanctions. Having seen all that, they are not afraid now, not at all! America can’t show them worst than what they have already seen and if they could sustain all that, they can sustain milder problems now. But, Do you think that fighting is the only way?!:-)

I didn't have a BIG problem, a problem, but not a big one, going into Afganistan. I did have a big problem with going into Iraq. I'm absolutely opposed to messing with Iran.

Your questions by number: 1) Students caused the Iranian revolution of 1979 in the first place..... der. 2) So danger means we shouldn't do anything to stop them from being more dangerous? 3) mercenaries are hired by private companies and contractors.

Although I detest the Iranian President, a man who says that his country have no Gays (because they are killed) & he does not believe the holocaust occured, I would seriously think that the US can not be involved in any more wars at the moment. The Iraq War is bad enough for the tropops already there, resources are being streched, & besdides, our Country would just follow the US if it went to war in Iran. However, significant world pressure needs to be brought on this man. There needs to be non-invasion way of capitulating him from power.

Wow... no offence... but when I read this dicussion... it sound like a bunch of teenagers arguing over nonsense. To answer your questions... 1) The Iran government is run by a bunch of extremists religious fanatics of the same blood than the taliban and any other terrorist. If we were not going to allow Saddam Hussein to have a few missiles and some nerve gaz... I fail to see how we could allow some mad people to have a nuclear bomb. 2) China is not a treat to us anymore... as it has its act together and wants to be part of our economy. Russia however is another story as it is still unstable and could be re-taken over by its military. 3) The mother of all war... we heard it all before... twice. War today is fought from the air. The one who has air supremacy is the winner. And the west is the only one who has air supremacy. 4) America's economy strives on war. Its whole economy depends on it. America has been at war every day since Pearl Harbor. When Bush spend a billion on war... it is to pay for military equipment which is manufactured in America... and to pay military personel... who spend their salary in America. 5) America should be broke after the billions it has spent in Iraq. But Iraq is not the cause of America's problem. The problem is greed from the banks. Because some people still believe that greed is good. 6) The Iranians students had 30 years to overthrow their government... and they did not. Just like we gave 10 years to the Iraqis people to overthrow Saddam Hussein... and they did not. 7) Going to war with Iran... is not about benefiting America... it is about keeping stability in the world and prevent a third world war... or rather... a nuclear war. Giving a nuclear bomb to a country which sponsor terrorism would be insane indeed. You are the one who is insane. 8) If indeed Iran is the major sponsor of terrorism... removing the source might be the solution to put an end to terrorism.

Since you are from Canada, I am curious about the "we" and "our economy" since we already know that Canada would not be involved in the first place. No one to my knowledge is seriously considering an attack on Iran at the present time, so I really fail to see the point of this discussion. Since it is here, lets lay it out for you. In the event of an attack on Iran, the Army or any other ground forces most likely would not be used, as it would be consisting of bombing missions from the air. The Iranian airforce would be destroyed in a very short time with little casualties to the US forces. It would consist of military targets, and most likely any nuclear facilities, and it would be swift and devastating. Our forces would be quickly in and out again, and there would be none of this nation building crap like what is going on in Iraq, nor would there be any concerns about stability. Reagan sank their navy, and that can be done again, because they are no match for us in that regard either. As I said, no one is seriously considering an attack on Iran other than the normal contingency plans... or if they are considering it, they sure aren't talking about it. You give Iran too much credit, and the power of the US military too little. A war in Iran would be a full scale no holds barred affair, and there is no military capable of surviving an all out attack by US forces.

I agree, attacking Iran's not a good idea. Whether America does it, or Israel. It's not justified either. I certainly don't agree with the Iranian President's philosophy's. I personally believe he's a religious bigot, and probably a jerk...but it isn't up to me or anyone but the Iranian people to judge him for that. And "maybe" nuclear power in a few years isn't enough to start wiping out military groups and nuclear sites...which would also mean "accidental" strikes on places with sattelites or anywhere else useful since a smart military general wouldn't want them coming after us or being able to present a credible tale. Israel would take the opportunity, since Iran would then be vulnerable. Iran is a very proud and strong country. Not the most intelligent or advanced, but those people have determination and they've pride...which can translate into self-righteous indignation. If this event doesn't take our the oil, we'd be fine. But if someone blows it up.."If I can't have it, no one can." and it's got..maybe a sevnty something percent chance of something happening to that oil...then there will be alot of strain on the remaining oil resources all over the world, and yes. I'll be surprised if the economy doesn't splat itself within the year. Weeks. Really... Anyway, we wouldn't be wasting our military resources. We'd be using the airforce, bombs. And yeah...the situation for the common man after that, not only in America...Canada...but anywhere, will be alot more tense and a whole lot more different than what people would normally be acostumed to. I agree also with one of the previous posters. Odds are sometime in the near future this will happen. Unless we can get someone to do something to stop it. Unfortunately, alot of people in the government...politicians..seem to be FOR going after Iran. Things have gone quiet recently, but it'll get noisy again about it soon enough. I have no idea when, but...it's the near future unless a miracle happens. I hope it never does but...I just tell what I see, man. I'm usually pretty accurate with trends. The larger an event is, the harder it is to predict, though. Two many key people, too many more you can't see. Tough. Aaanyway. You've heard lots of talk about this? Um..mainstream? Or...among co-workers.. or? I get all my information from the underground and alternative...internet, contacts...only occasionally the mainstream and Sleepers (folks who aren't normally aware of the truth about the world).

I don't think a war with Iran would be a good thing either, but I also think that it will be inevitable. Even if we stood back and let Israel, Germany and France try to take vcare of it you know they would have our backing and eventually that's where our troops would end up.

I think if that will happen, many poor people around the world will suffer a heavy burden specially in the price of commodities. I will say this because everytime they are a conflict in the middle east. The price of crude oil will go up. If the price of crude oil will up, then the price of all basic commodities in the market will go up simultaneously. And that is the big inflication of having a conflict in the middle east.

If US attacks Iran then this country will kill more innocent people. The family of this innocent people will pray for the destruction of US, whoever God is the pray of these innocent people will be heared. As a consequent, you will US will slowly dissolve maybe from inside. There will be unexplain economic and social problems. And dont forget there will be more unexplain natural catastropies will happen in US, will see..

this is a good point but the average american will not decide if we go to war or not...these decesions will be done on a higher level and it does not matter what party is in office...there will be wars and rumors of war...but all the average citizen can hope for is that their family is not put in harms way...i agree war is "insane" but i don't see where we will get a chance to "Vote" on this issue. I did not vote for the current President either times but since he is the President I feel obligated to follow him but in reality what did we gain from the wars since WWII? I served in the Air Force during Viet Nam but I spent all my time in Michigan after trainning in Texas...the war then was like it is now..it just kept going from bad to worse with no end in sight...i think this war is worse then Viet Nam or Korea..this war will only bring everyone down...

I am in no way saying that i think it's a good idea to go to war with Iran, but the reality is that eventually one day it's gonna happen. It's inevitable. My husband is military, currently serving in iraq, and he for one thinks that there is no doubt that one day it's gonna happen. I have to agree with him, even though i do not see the need in it as of right now. i do believe that we need to get our troops together again instead of having them spread out in 20 different countries though

Let's hope that this country doesn't consider it anytime soon. Once Bush is out of office it may not happen. Unfortunately he has a way of being above the law and getting everyone all stirred up about how much we "Need" to protect ourselves. Then after all his bullcrap rhetoric about how if we don't go his way the whole world will end and it will be a Nuclear Disaster. All we're doing is just pissing off the world even more. So many people I talk to from foreign countries have such a bad image of us now. We're kind of like the bad house on the block now that none of the neighbors want around.

hey heey you have not to go to iran also you have not to go any country for war because if america go somewhere this country will has a civil war and they will be a hell and your stupid president (i m sorry ) i know irani peoples they don t afraid to die for country and they don t know to what is mean war they know just jihad do you know what is jihad jihad is war for your religion in Islamic system and in the Islam culture if you die for your religion you will go to haven (offcourse in Islamic system ) i was have to few irani friends and all irani peoples r so dangereous Now iran has a nuclear weapons and i guess they can use this weapons because they don t afraid to kill or don t afraid to die. And do you know what if some irani s son die for country or religion they r don t cry or don t be sad for son because this son "Die For Allah" and and irani know son is go to hevaen. well america have to stay in america if america go somewhere i guess super power will be ower.

I agree with you on the points you made there. As far as it being "over" quickly, that's exactly what they said about Iraq and look how that one turned out. Annie