What do the New Hampshire primary results mean?
By ladyluna
@ladyluna (7004)
United States
January 9, 2008 8:00am CST
For all you registered voters out there, yesterday's New Hampshire race was certainly energetic. Yet, what does it mean for the overall election?
I found the Fox exit polling to be absolutely fascinating! Here are the polling data:
GOP:
http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/01/09/new-hampshire-republican-exit-polls/
Dem:
http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/01/09/fox-news-new-hampshire-democratic-exit-polls/
Many theories could be extrapolated from this data. And, I'm sure the pundits are scouring it as we speak. Yet, I'm more interested in your observations about what you think it means.
Do you think McCain can use last nights 5pt win to catapult him to the national stage? Was Romney helped or hurt by America's sense of optimism or pessimism?
Did Clinton fail to connect with our more educated citizens, thereby giving Obama the greater number of highly educated voters? Was Clinton's demonstration of emotion responsible for the fact that 40% of the N.H. residents who voted for her only dedice who they would vote for on the day of the primary vote? If so, how does Clinton use this as she forges on to Nevada and South Carolina?
So many questions -- and yours are the answers that count! If nothing else, last night proved that the pundits are still highly fallible.
So, I invite you to peruse the exit polls, and share with us what you deduce. How did your candidate fare? And, how do you think he or she will fare as the race continues?
Thanks, I'm really looking forward to your responses.
1 person likes this
6 responses
@merrydew (60)
• United States
9 Jan 08
The GOP exit poll data shows what most pundits predict, that McCain will have a tougher time in more conservative states with fewer independents or where independents can't vote. He doesn't represent the more conventional, right-wing (true?) conservatism. This might help him, I suppose, if there is a big enough reaction to the Bush administration (he represents 'change' more than Romney for example). So the current optimism should help McCain, going forward, although his more liberal form of conservatism will not, imho.
Hillary's show of emotion helped her, particularly with the female vote. I think the number of women voting for her may explain the data regarding education and income, or is that chauvinistic? At least women in general do not earn as much as men, right? (And this has no relation to intelligence of course). This should be a positive for Hillary going forward, as appealing to the female vote will carry to all states (as opposed to appealing to independent voters).
Thanks for sharing the data.
1 person likes this
@ladyluna (7004)
• United States
9 Jan 08
Hello Merrydew,
First, I'd like to welcome you to MyLot. I hope you enjoy your time here. As well, I hope to see much more of your thoughtful interraction. I hope you don't mind, but since you're new here I perused your other responses before formulating this reply. Mostly I was curious about your gender, but found myself sucked in to the great topics that you have chosen to respond to, and specifically to your responses. Well done!
And, nicely done here! I may not be in full agreement with all of your conclusions, yet that's completely irrelevant. You clearly put your thinking cap on, and projected possible future trends & outcomes based on current data. Which is exactly what I had hoped people would do.
@ladyluna (7004)
• United States
9 Jan 08
Hello Merrydew,
You're welcome!
As for the gender question -- I was pretty confident that my bet on male was safe after having read your remote control answer. Very funny!
Thanks for your interest in my possible interpretation of the data. If you don't mind, it's my preference to hold off for a bit. I'm fairly confident that additional, enlightened responses will come in on this post. Rather than make this about what I think, I'd much prefer to learn how others are interpreting the data.
As for the variety of American opinions and political leanings, you're right as rain! Though I suspect that the N.H. exit polling does offer some reliable clues into the comparative & contrasting data that will illuminate the probable outcome. At least on the GOP side. The Dem side is a bit more difficult to postulate because of the emotive interplay between Obama, Clinton & the media.
In a world with so little certainty, I think I can say with some degree of confidence that this is going to be an interesting election cycle.
@merrydew (60)
• United States
9 Jan 08
Hello LadyLuna,
Thank you so much for the welcome to myLot. It's great to be here! I don't mind that you perused the discussions to which I have responded. I am still figuring out how I will contribute to myLot. I've responded to the topics that grabbed my attention, and that I could understand well enough to give some semi-intelligible response! (And I wasn't trying to obfuscate my gender (M). I just hadn't noticed that it wasn't being shown; which I've now rectified).
I'd be interested in your interpretation of the data. Certainly this is a country with very varied opinions and backgrounds, which makes it hazardous to extrapolate the data from one or two states to the rest of the country, no?
1 person likes this
@Adoniah (7513)
• United States
10 Jan 08
My personal wish is that, when the first woman had a chance at the White House and the first Black person had a chance at the White House, they just could have been some one else, anyone else. I could never vote for either one of those two people and I have always wanted to see a Woman or a Black person in Office. Well, I usually vote for a loser anyway.
I have a feeling that we will see another Republican in office this election though. I think that Hillary and Obama will continue to make mistakes even though one of them will be the Democratic nomminee.
1 person likes this
@ladyluna (7004)
• United States
10 Jan 08
Hello Adoniah,
I have voted for my fair share of losers as well. So, I can relate.
You allude to an interesting first in this election cycle. The election period is so long this time that it really increases the possibility that the individual candidates will trip themselves, and each other up.
It also increases the chances that the candidates will develop genuine resentments toward their opponents (we're already seeing this from Huckabee's campaign staff). Statistical trending does seem to indicate that America's patience for negative campaigning has dwindled. So, my guess is that we'll hear less of "my esteemed collegue is or proposes ...", and more of "he is ..." and "she is ..." Of course, between the Dem's I suspect this will be a much easier fall from grace for Hillary than Obama. Thus far, he has done an impressive job of keeping his composure -- and 'on message'.
Of course, I'm still not sure what that message is. In his concession speech last night Obama said over and over "We can", yet he never identified what we can do, why, or how it can be accomplished. Obama has capitalized on generalizations, but is thus far presenting very few specifics, as he stumps in these primaries. I can't imagine it will be too much longer before Hillary sees this as his achilles heel.
You may be on to something about a GOP win, if as you suggest, the Dem top-tier continue to utter public gaffs on the campaign trail. Thus far, the only large GOP gaffs have come from Huckabee. Of course, there's still plenty of time!
@sigma77 (5383)
• United States
9 Jan 08
Yawn...Oh hi Luna. Politics this early in the morning? I looked at some of the stats and I guess if you did some kind of regression analysis, there might be some trends worth keeping an eye on. One factor for this election is that the current president can't run, so the job is wide open. We seem to get our fill of one side for 4 to 8 years, then move to the other side. My guy dropped out of the race a few months back, so I am at a loss as to who I now favor. I don't listen to the experts because they usually are too self-serving and many times have their own agendas. I think with so much confusion as to which direction we need to move this country, it is still to early put much stock in pundit-speak. I fear that whoever we get will result in little happening over the next 4 or 8 years. Congress will still be dropping the ball. I want to be positive and hopeful, but give me something concrete to hang my hopes on....enough talk and debate...give me some real change and reform. Enough all ready. Sorry, but I am going to turn off the political banter and go about my life. At least that is something I can make some decisions about. I am totally frustrated with this entire process because it seems lame and unproductive. Lastly, my greatest fear is Hillary winning this thing. If the Dems are going to win, please, anyone but her. I don't see anyone running ahead of the pack just yet.
1 person likes this
@ladyluna (7004)
• United States
9 Jan 08
Hello Sigma,
You are sweet as pie for chiming in here. I know that you are not at all thrilled about so many aspects of this election season. So, thank for sharing your two cents worth.
You may be uninspired and fatigued by it all, yet you still make some interesting observations & predictions about the pundits, the national trends, and the ineffectiveness of Congress.
It may be early, but ya' done good, my friend!
@ladyluna (7004)
• United States
9 Jan 08
Hello Drannhh,
Funny thing is, Hubby told me last night that he'd deliberately mislead a pollster, just because. So, I doubt that you're alone in your overall reaction to pollsters.
I would agree with the fact that they are ridiculously incomplete. Yet, statisitics are all about the interplay of the data. I find them both fascinating and illuminating. 'Course, that's a little strange, and I readily admit it.
@RowenaTheWitch (947)
• Italy
9 Jan 08
I have no idea how this could happen, but I hope she wins!
Go Hillary!
By the way I think citizens change opinion too frequently. A month ago Hillary was considered the winner by the polls, two days ago the polls said she was the loser and now she has regained her votes. It's strange
1 person likes this
@ladyluna (7004)
• United States
9 Jan 08
Hello Rowena,
Well, you certainly weren't the only one caught off guard by the results.
You make a good point about voter vascillation. I was astonished to learn that the night before the primary a great many N.H. voters still hadn't made up their minds. Good observation!
1 person likes this
@Uroborus (908)
• Canada
10 Jan 08
It means that both Obama and Clinton are good candidates. I don't think anyone can predict what's going to happen now. Both are respected, and both have popularity with the people. Whatever happens I only hope that one of these two becomes the next president. The runner up could perhaps be the vice-president.
@ladyluna (7004)
• United States
10 Jan 08
Hello Uroborus,
I'd like to welcome you to MyLot as well. I hope your really enjoy your time here.
And, thank you for sharing your views with us. None could argue that both Clinton and Obama are reaching a certain segment of the country. How much of a segment remains to be seen. The only certainty is that next November someone will emerge victorious. Who the victor might be is anyone's guess.