Iran, militias could gain from British pullout

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By Rick Jervis, USA TODAY BAGHDAD — Britain's planned reduction in its force in southern Iraq could empower Iran and lead to more bloodshed between rival Shiite Muslim groups, analysts warned Wednesday. The area around Basra is less violent than Baghdad, and sectarian killings are rare, in part because it is overwhelmingly Shiite. But the government's authority there is rivaled by armed groups that are "thoroughly intertwined with criminal enterprises," according to a report from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "In the coming year, the drawdown of British forces in the deep south will likely be accompanied by an upsurge of factional violence as the long-delayed fight for local supremacy begins in earnest," said the report, written by Iraq security specialists Michael Knights and Ed Williams. The militias already engage in regular street battles over lucrative oil smuggling. The region has 70% of Iraq's oil fields. Vice President Cheney said Wednesday that the planned British withdrawal was a response to improved security in the area. "What I see is an affirmation of the fact that there are parts of Iraq where things are going pretty well," Cheney told ABC News. Late last year, Basra province was experiencing an average of five attacks a day against troops and civilians, compared with nearly 40 a day in Baghdad, according to a Defense Department quarterly report in December. On Tuesday, Britain handed over control of an Iraqi army division based in Basra. The 10th Iraqi Army Division, which was trained by British troops, now takes its orders from Iraqi military commanders in Baghdad. Questions linger, however, about the Iraqi security forces in the area. In late December, more than 800 British soldiers raided a police station housing Basra's "serious crime unit," where police were accused of arresting, torturing and killing rival clansmen. The British soldiers killed seven gunmen, rescued 127 prisoners and ultimately reduced the two-story building to rubble. "The Iraqi security forces in Basra are not equipped or qualified to take on responsibility," said Abo Amar al-Mayahi, head of Basra's Badr Organization, a Shiite group. "If they took over now, there will be a lot of chances for bad things to happen." A spokesman for the British military in Basra could not be reached for comment. Kenneth Katzman, an Iraq expert at the Congressional Research Service, said the British withdrawal will "leave a vacuum that will be filled by Shiite militias backed by Iran." The Bush administration has recently accused Iran of providing weapons to Shiite militias in a drive to bolster Iranian influence in Iraq. Smuggling across the nearby Iranian border, currently patrolled by British troops, could also soar with fewer British soldiers in the area, said Juan Cole, a University of Michigan history professor and expert on Iraq's Shiites. Cole said militias often steal oil after it leaves refineries, load it on boats and then sell it on the black market in other Persian Gulf countries. "It's really dangerous in so many ways," Cole said of the British withdrawal. "Basra is not under control." U.S. commanders may also need to find other ways to escort fuel and supply convoys running between Basra or Kuwait and the rest of Iraq, Cole said. That security has been handled by British troops, he said. "This idea that the British could leave because the local authorities have things under control is just completely false," he said. Also Wednesday: •A Black Hawk helicopter went down north of Baghdad, the U.S. military said. All nine people on board were evacuated, and there were no serious injuries. "The indications are now that it was brought down by small-arms fire and … rocket-propelled grenades," Maj. Gen. William Caldwell, the chief U.S. military spokesman in Iraq, told CNN. Seven American helicopters, including two operated by aprivate security company, have gone down in Iraq since Jan. 20. •In Baghdad, insurgents blew up a pickup carrying chlorine gas canisters. It was the second such attack in two days. The explosion killed at least five people and sent more than 55 to hospitals gasping for breath and rubbing stinging eyes, police said. Chlorine causes respiratory trouble and skin irritation in low levels and can be fatal with heavy exposure. "Terrorists are using dirty means," said Brig. Gen. Qassim Moussawi, an Iraqi military spokesman. •A suicide car bomber struck a police checkpoint in the Shiite holy city of Najaf. The attack killed 13 people. The blast hit while streets were filled with morning shoppers. This news from www.usatoday.com Contributing: Barbara Slavin in Washington and wire reports